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Saturday
Jul102010

Taleb's black swan theory known to Bismarck

The black swan theory states, in a nutshell, that we cannot predict- and by extension, control, the huge world changing events that occur from time to time.

It is far better to try and be good at rapid response- either making the best of a boom or getting out quickly from a disaster. In this context Bismarck presciently wrote: "A statesman has not to make history, but if he ever in the events around him he hears the sweep of the mantle of God, then he must jump up and catch at its hem."

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